December 2024 Market Update: Providing Clarity in a Complex Real Estate Market

Thoughts for Sellers

Sellers still need to be more aggressive on price than they have in recent years and keep an eye out for new competition to the market, as listing inventories continue to build. Consider re-evaluating the price on homes that have been on the market for longer than a month. For those looking to list, we still recommend pricing at or below recent comps, as the increased listing competition and still high interest rates are putting downward pressure on prices and softening our market. That said, prices remain near all-time highs, so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market.

Thoughts for Buyers

Buyers can continue to rejoice in increased options on the market and less pressure to buy immediately. With interest rates having gone up since the September Fed Cut, lower affordability continues to soften our market, as we are seeing homes close at an average of 5% below their list price - so there is an opportunity to buy homes at a bit of a discount and make up that difference we are seeing in "still high" rates.

Median Sales Price

Bend’s Median Sales Price took a big drop from October to November 2024, landing at $700K this month (-4% YOY). This is the lowest Median Sales Price we've seen since February of this year (seasonality) -but it is not too surprising given how much inventory is still on the market (4.4 months). Buyers have more options than they've had in years, driving prices down a bit. This also confirms the anomaly that was October's Median Sales Price ($800K) -which was driven by 35+% of sales coming in the $1M+ category. We are forecasting more market softening at least through Winter, due to our inventory glut and "still high" interest rates for the foreseeable future. Currently, homes are selling at roughly a 95% Sale to List Price ratio (meaning homes are selling for roughly 5% under their list price).

New Listings by Month

New Listings increased by 25% YOY in November to 169, staying on trend with what we've seen for almost every month of 2024, and keeping our Months of Supply higher than we have seen in recent years. That said, we have started to see seasonality kick in with less new listings as we enter the slower Winter months.

Months of Supply

Months of Supply still remains at a level we haven't seen in at least a decade! November came in at 4.4 months - the first time we've had over 4 Months of Supply in November in at least a decade, and roughly 1.5 months more of supply than we had in November 2023.

Homes Pending By Month

Pending units increased for the 4th consecutive month by 24% YOY to 146, continuing an improvement from the first half of 2024. This is likely influenced by some of the breaks we saw in affordability metrics this Fall and just the sheer amount of homes available on the market to purchase. But when compared to pre-pandemic levels, we are still down roughly 40% in Pending Units compared to November of 2019 - a trend we have tracked since 2022's rate increases.

Financing Affordability

The Median Monthly Payment (w/ 20% down@ average FRM) for November 2024 came in at $4,068-still above that $4K threshold for the second time since June and the fifth time this year. Not necessarily great news for buyers - but on the flip side, our inventory glut and higher rates are dropping prices on homes, so there is an opportunity for Buyers to save money there.