January 2025 Market Update: Winter Strategies

Thoughts for Sellers

For those looking to list soon, we are still recommending that you price at or below recent comps as our increased inventory and stingy interest rates have put downward pressure on prices and softened our market. That said, prices do remain near all-time highs - so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market. We are also advising Sellers to get ahead of the Spring rush and list earlier (Jan - early Mar.) if you can. Central Oregon's inventory is always at its lowest during the Winter - meaning your home will get the eyeballs of serious Buyers much easier than it would during the Spring/Summer rush. Let's chat if you would like to come up with a strategy for your home in 2025. 

Thoughts for Buyers

The latest data implies that Buyers should get comfortable with our current interest rate environment. So if you are ready to Buy, know that there are more home options on the market than we have seen in years, and with homes selling at a roughly 95% sale-to-list price ratio - there are opportunities to seek a deal on a home and/or get creative with financing via seller credits, etc. Talk with your Mortgage broker, or have us connect you with one of our preferred partners if you are interested in learning more. 

Median Sales Price

Bend's Median Sales Price was FLAT from November to December 2024, landing at $700K (-5% YOY), and stayed on trend with what we saw for most of 2024. With more inventory on the market than we had seen in years mixed with higher interest rates -Buyers had increased options in 2024, which drove prices down a bit. We still forecast more market softening at least through Winter, due to our inventory glut and "still high" interest rates for the foreseeable future. Homes are continuing to sell at roughly a 95% Sale to List Price ratio (meaning homes are selling for roughly an average of 5% under their list price).

New Listings by Month

New Listings increased by only 3% YOY in December with 108. December is consistently the lowest new listing month with the Holiday season in full swing. We should see an uptick in New Listings starting in January 2025.

Months of Supply

Months of Supply is still at a level we haven't seen in a decade! December came in at 3.6 months -roughly 1 month more of supply than we had in Dec '23. We did see a significant one-month drop in supply from Nov to Dec '24, however. Likely from unmotivated Sellers pulling their homes until Spring.

Homes Pending by Month

Pending units increased for the 5th consecutive month by 10% YOY to 147, continuing the improvement from the first half of 2024. Despite the challenging market, Buyers & Sellers are finding ways to make deals happen. However, our pending unit volume is still down roughly 20% to pre-pandemic volumes. We expect there to be more transaction volume in 2025 than there was in 2023 or 2024.

Financing Affordability

The Median Monthly Payment (w/ 20% down@ average FRM) for December 2024 came in at $4,117-still above that $4K threshold for the third time since June and the sixth time this year. This has really slowed down our <$1M market but has created opportunities for Buyers who are ready to buy to seek a deal on homes that have sat on the market for longer than a month. The Fed has not indicated that we should expect a break in rates anytime soon.