Published November 15, 2023

November 2023 Bend Market Update

Written by Ryan McGlone

November 2023 Bend Market Update header image.

NOVEMBER MARKET UPDATE: AFTER AN OCTOBER RATE PEAK OF 8%, NOVEMBER BRINGS SOME RELIEF FOR CENTRAL OREGON BUYERS.

BEND'S SALES PRICE

Bend's median sales price dipped down to $728K which is up roughly 7% over last year, and down roughly 3% compared to the trailing 4 months. Bend's average sales price dropped considerably compared to last month (891K in Sept, 821K in Oct) and is actually down 2% over last year. Interest rates are still the primary story behind slowing sales, as October saw rates hit an all time high post the 2008 Financial Crisis. The secondary reason for the decline is rising inventories as we head into our typically slowest time of the year. New listings saw a surge in October, while at the same time, pending units continued to decline. Expect to see our months of supply shift from a relatively stable 3 months of supply, to something close to 4 months as we report figures for November.

MONTHS OF SUPPLY

Months of inventory is stable at just over 3 months, however with the dip in pending sales and increase in new listings, we forecast that months of supply will increase in the coming months.

NEW LISTINGS

A significant change occurred in new listings for October. New listings increased to 211 units, up roughly 20% over LY, and up 10% over last month. This increase will put downward pressure on price.

HOMES PENDING BY MONTH (RECENT DEMAND)

Pending units dipped again and are down 8% to last year. This is the first month in several months were the number of pending units came in significantly down to the number of new listings, which is welcome news for buyers as this is a sign that competition from other buyers is trending down on a seasonal basis, and a year over year basis.

AFFORDABILITY TRACKING FOR A MEDIAN PRICED HOME

Our gauge on affordability (median mortgage price based on Fed rate data and median price) showed another slight decrease in affordability. Even though we saw a downturn in the median price, the uptick in rate still pushed the median mortgage payment used in our calculations up over $4150. The good news is that since this data was published, rates have dropped nearly 50 basis points and rates are now below 7.5%, very welcome news to both buyers and sellers.

THOUGHTS FOR SELLERS

Sellers, get your home ready and get ready to list early in 2024! Higher rates have sidelined a healthy portion of supply and as the consumer gets more comfortable with elevated rates we expect to see listing volumes pick up. Late winter/early spring is when we believe listing a home will yield the best results.

THOUGHTS FOR BUYERS

Take advantage of seasonal lower prices and the recent downward pressure on rates! Those that bought duriung this window last year did well, and with the data lining up in a similar fashion, we believe right now is the time to be shopping.