November 2024 Market Update

NOVEMBER MARKET UPDATE

Hello clients and Real Estate enthusiasts! Hopefully everyone is getting their skis and snowboards waxed in preparation for the early opening of Mt. Bachelor. In the local Real Estate world, October saw the highest Median Sales Price in Bend for 2024 - a surprise, given our recent market softening, inventory glut, and high interest rates driving prices down this year. As always, that doesn't tell the whole story. Read on for more detail on the current state of our local market!

Bend's median sales price increased to $800K this October, up 10% YOY. This was unexpected after four straight months of decrease, mixed with our building inventories and interest rate environment. Months of Supply now sits at 4.6 months, still the highest for the current month in at least a decade as we turn the page to slower winter months. Therefore, despite this month's surprising median sales price, we do still expect additional market softening due to our inventory glut and "still high" interest rates. October saw an unusual amount of higher-end sales, which is carrying the market for now. Our advice remains the same or the foreseeable future - Sellers ought to be more aggressive on price and Buyers can be pickier due to options available and at times, find a deal on a home. 

New Listings By Month

New listings increased again by 15% YOY in October, staying on trend with what we've seen for almost every month of 2024, and keeping our Months of Supply higher than we have seen in recent years. That said, we have started to see seasonality kick in with less new listings as we enter Winter months.

Homes Pending By Month

Pending Units increased for the 3rd consecutive month by 30% YOY, continuing an improvement from the rest of 2024, where Pending Units were down every month except for the last three. This is likely influenced by some of the breaks we saw in affordability metrics and just the sheer amount of homes available on the market to purchase. But when compared to pre-pandemic levels, we are still down roughly 25% in Pending Units compared to October of 2019.     

 

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Months of Supply Months of Supply remains at a level we haven't seen in at least a decade! October came in at 4.6 months - the first time we've had over 4 Months of Supply in October in at least a decade, and 1.5 months more than October 2023.

Financing Affordability

Affordability took a hit this month with the increase in rates since the Fed cut in Mid September. The median monthly payment (w/ 20% down @ average FRM) for October came in at $4,138, eclipsing the $4K threshold for the first time since June and only the fourth time this year. Not necessarily great news for buyers - but on the flip side, our inventory glut is dropping prices on homes, so there is opportunity for Buyers to save money there.

Thoughts for Sellers

Sellers still need to be more aggressive on price than they have in recent years and keep an eye out for new competition to the market, as listing inventories continue to build. Consider re-evaluating price on homes that have been on the market for longer than a month. For those looking to list, we still recommend pricing at or below recent comps, as the increased listing competition and still high interest rates are putting downward pressure on price and softening our market. That said, prices remain near all time highs, so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market. 

Thoughts for Buyers

Buyers can continue to rejoice in increased options on the market and less pressure to buy immediately. With interest rates having gone up since the September Fed Cut, affordability did take a hit this month, but we have seen many homes close 5-10% below list price in recent months - so there is opportunity to buy homes at a bit of a discount and make up that difference we are seeing in "still high" rates.