October 2024 Market Update: Bend Reaches "Most Affordable" Level in Two Years

OCTOBER MARKET UPDATE: CONTINUED INVENTORY GROWTH AND GAINING AFFORDABILITY 

Happy Fall, Friends! Hopefully you have been getting out and enjoying our beautiful Fall weather and reduced smoke in the air. Real Estate remains dynamic in Bend, with our market quickly course correcting this year. Read on for more!

Bend's median sales price dropped to $710K this September, down 5% YOY. This is an expected drop and continued the downward trend since June '24's peak @ $799K ($749K for July '24, $730K for Aug. '24). We've expected this trend due to the well-documented building inventories and "still high" interest rates, as well as just sheer seasonality. With Months of Supply now sitting at 4.9 months, we do expect some continued downward pressure on price, at least until rates get low enough to trigger a bigger Buyer pool. That said, we continue to see affordability strengthen again, as evidenced by the chart below. For the foreseeable future - despite our market still being near all time highs, Sellers need to be more aggressive on price and Buyers can rejoice in lots of options and reducing interest rates. 

New Listings By Month

New listings increased by 23% YOY in September, continuing to fuel our growing inventories situation and staying on trend with what we've seen for almost every month of 2024. That said, September did see the least new listings since February (seasonality), which should help temper our growing Months of Supply over time

Homes Pending By Month

Pending Units increased for the 2nd consecutive month by 15% YOY. This is an improvement from the rest of 2024, where Pending Units have been down every month except for the last two. This is likely influenced by some of the breaks we are starting to see in affordability metrics and just the sheer amount of homes available on the market to purchase. But when compared to pre-pandemic levels, we are still down roughly 21% in Pending Units compared to September of 2019.   

 

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Months of Supply Months of Supply remains at a level we haven't seen in at least a decade! September came in at 4.9 months - the first time we've had over 4 Months of Supply in September since 2014, and two months more than September 2023. Buyers have more options than ever and Sellers ought to be aggressive on price.

Financing Affordability

We saw a gain in affordability yet again in September, coming in at a median monthly payment of $3,435. This was influenced by another roughly 20K drop in the median sales price of a closed home, as well as our lowest average FRM since January of 2023. Housing in Bend is more or less the "most affordable" it has been in about two years.

Thoughts for Sellers

For those looking to list, we are still recommending that you price your home aggressively (at or below recent comps), as the increased listing competition and "still high" rates have put downward pressure on price as we turn the page to Fall. That said, despite the building inventories we are seeing - prices are still near all time highs, so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so! Moreover, with affordability gaining and Pending Units having increased for the last two months Year-Over-Year, we are starting to see more Buyers come off the sidelines. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market!

Thoughts for Buyers

Once again, increased inventory offers buyers with a wide range of options we have not seen in years. And with affordability gaining, this may be a good time for Buyers who are ready to come off the sidelines and enter the market. Buyers can take a breath and weigh options prior to committing to a property, a welcome change to any time over the last several years. Buyers still need to keep in mind that excellent homes which are priced well, will still go fast. And we do expect to see inventory start to tighten as we move towards Spring 2025, given that growing inventories and days on market will likely push non-motivated resellers to pull their homes off the market - as well as cause builders to pump the brakes on new starts. If you are ready to buy, consider entering the market now before the increased Spring competition arrives.