Published September 9, 2024
September 2024 Market Update: Growing Inventories, Price Sensitivity, Affordability
SEPTEMBER MARKET UPDATE: INVENTORIES CONTINUE TO GROW! IS IT A GREAT TIME TO BE A BUYER? PERHAPS A GREAT TIME TO EXIT AS A SELLER?
Happy September all! Change is in the air with Fall on the horizon, back to school and a rapidly changing Real Estate market.
Bend's median sales price dropped to
$730K this month, down 3% to last year. This is an expected trend after June's
2024 peak at $799K - the highest we have seen this year, and tied the highest
median sales price we saw in 2023 (July). This year over year decline for
August is influenced by building inventories, which now sit at 5.25 months.
This is the highest number on record in the last decade plus, exceeding our
previous highs in June & July of 2024. However, with inventories increasing
and rates starting to drop, we are seeing affordability start to strengthen -
as evidenced by the charts below.
New Listings By Month
New listings increased year over year by
21%, following a similar trend as the rest of 2024. This came after a June
where we saw about an 8% drop in new listings YOY - compared to a trend of a
10% to 15% YOY increase for each of the first 5 months of 2024 - as well as
July, where we saw a 35% increase in new listings.
Homes Pending By Month
Pending units
increased in August by 20%. This is an improvement from all of 2024, but when
compared to pre-pandemic levels, we are still down roughly 21% in pending units
compared to August of 2019.
.
Months of Supply
Months of supply once again surged to levels we haven't seen in over a decade! Our market is now at 5.25 months which is at least 2 months above any other result for August in the past 10 years.
Financing Affordability
We saw a gain in affordability yet again in August with a $234 decrease in median monthly payment to $3,634. This was influenced by a roughly $20K drop in the median sales price of a closed home, as well as our lowest average FRM since April of 2023. This also kept us below that 4K a month threshold for a monthly payment on a median sales priced home financed with 20% down, for only the third time since February.
Thoughts for Sellers
If you have a home on the market, make sure you are keeping an eye out for new competition to the market, as listing inventories continue to build rapidly. This is a great time to re-evaluate pricing on homes that have been on the market for longer than a month. Being aggressive on price is becoming more important than it has in years. For those looking to list, we recommend pricing at or below recent comps, as the increased listing competition and still high rates are starting to put downward pressure on price as we head into Fall. That said, despite the building inventories we are seeing - prices are still near all time highs, so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market.
Thoughts for Buyers
We are entering a potentially awesome time to be a buyer for the next few months as our inventory continues to increase and offers buyers with a wide range of options we have not seen in years! Buyers can take a breath and weigh options prior to committing to a property, a welcome change from early spring, or any time over the past few years. Buyers still need to keep in mind that excellent homes which are priced well, will still go fast. We also expect to see inventory start to tighten as we move towards Spring 2025, given that growing inventories and days on market will likely push non-motivated resellers to pull their homes off the market - as well as cause builders to pump the brakes on new starts.
Happy September all! Change is in the air with Fall on the horizon, back to school and a rapidly changing Real Estate market.
Bend's median sales price dropped to
$730K this month, down 3% to last year. This is an expected trend after June's
2024 peak at $799K - the highest we have seen this year, and tied the highest
median sales price we saw in 2023 (July). This year over year decline for
August is influenced by building inventories, which now sit at 5.25 months.
This is the highest number on record in the last decade plus, exceeding our
previous highs in June & July of 2024. However, with inventories increasing
and rates starting to drop, we are seeing affordability start to strengthen -
as evidenced by the charts below.
New Listings By Month
New listings increased year over year by
21%, following a similar trend as the rest of 2024. This came after a June
where we saw about an 8% drop in new listings YOY - compared to a trend of a
10% to 15% YOY increase for each of the first 5 months of 2024 - as well as
July, where we saw a 35% increase in new listings.
Homes Pending By Month
Pending units increased in August by 20%. This is an improvement from all of 2024, but when compared to pre-pandemic levels, we are still down roughly 21% in pending units compared to August of 2019.
.
Months of Supply Months of supply once again surged to levels we haven't seen in over a decade! Our market is now at 5.25 months which is at least 2 months above any other result for August in the past 10 years. |
Financing Affordability
We saw a gain in affordability yet again in August with a $234 decrease in median monthly payment to $3,634. This was influenced by a roughly $20K drop in the median sales price of a closed home, as well as our lowest average FRM since April of 2023. This also kept us below that 4K a month threshold for a monthly payment on a median sales priced home financed with 20% down, for only the third time since February.
If you have a home on the market, make sure you are keeping an eye out for new competition to the market, as listing inventories continue to build rapidly. This is a great time to re-evaluate pricing on homes that have been on the market for longer than a month. Being aggressive on price is becoming more important than it has in years. For those looking to list, we recommend pricing at or below recent comps, as the increased listing competition and still high rates are starting to put downward pressure on price as we head into Fall. That said, despite the building inventories we are seeing - prices are still near all time highs, so this may be a great time to exit the market if you are looking to do so. You just need to be thoughtful about where you are pricing your home to be more competitive in this market.
Thoughts for Buyers
We are entering a potentially awesome time to be a buyer for the next few months as our inventory continues to increase and offers buyers with a wide range of options we have not seen in years! Buyers can take a breath and weigh options prior to committing to a property, a welcome change from early spring, or any time over the past few years. Buyers still need to keep in mind that excellent homes which are priced well, will still go fast. We also expect to see inventory start to tighten as we move towards Spring 2025, given that growing inventories and days on market will likely push non-motivated resellers to pull their homes off the market - as well as cause builders to pump the brakes on new starts.
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